Vulnerability and resilience of cyber-physical power systems: results from an empirical-based study

Power systems are undergoing a profound transformation towards cyber-physical systems. Disruptive changes due to energy system transition and the complexity of the interconnected systems expose the power system to new, unknown and unpredictable risks. To identify the critical points, a vulnerability assessment was conducted, involving experts from power as well as information and communication technologies (ICT) sectors. Weaknesses were identified e.g.,the lack of policy enforcement worsened by the unreadiness of involved actors. The complex dynamics of ICT makes it infeasible to keep a complete inventory of potential stressors to define appropriate preparation and prevention mechanisms. Therefore, we suggest applying a resilience management approach to increase the resilience of the system. It aims at a better ride through failures rather than building higher walls. We conclude that building resilience in cyber-physical power systems is feasible and helps in preparing for the unexpected

Building resilient cyber-physical power systems: an approach using vulnerability assessment and resilience management

Power systems are undergoing a profound transformation towards cyber- physical systems. Disruptive changes due to energy system transition and the complexity of the interconnected systems expose the power system to new, unknown, and unpredictable risks. To identify the critical points, a vulnerability assessment was conducted, involving experts from the power as well as the information and communication technologies (ICT) sectors. Weaknesses were identified, e. g., the lack of policy enforcement, which are worsened by the unreadiness of the actors involved. Due to the complex dynamics of ICT, it is infeasible to keep a complete inventory of potential stressors to define appropriate preparation and prevention mechanisms. Therefore, we suggest applying a resilience management approach to increase the resilience of the system. It aims at better riding through failures rather than building higher walls. We conclude that building resilience in cyber-physical power systems is feasible and helps in preparing for the unexpected.Energiesysteme befinden sich in einem tiefgreifenden Wandel hin zu cyber- physischen Systemen. Disruptive Veränderungen, die von der Transformation des Energiesystems und der Komplexität der miteinander verbundenen Systeme herrühren, setzen das Stromnetz neuen, unbekannten Risiken aus. Mit einer Vulnerabilitätsanalyse unter Einbeziehung von Experten aus den Bereichen Energie und Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologien (IKT) wurden Schwachstellen identifiziert, z. B. Nachteile durch die fehlende Durchsetzung von Regulierungen, und eine mangelnde Anpassungsbereitschaft der beteiligten Akteure. Die komplexe IKT-Dynamik macht es unmöglich, potenzielle Stressoren vollständig zu erfassen, um geeignete Präventionsmechanismen zu definieren. Die vorgeschlagenen Resilienzmanagementmaßnahmen zielen darauf ab, Krisen besser zu bewältigen, anstatt auf höhere Barrieren zu setzen. Die Resilienz cyber-physikalischer Energiesysteme ist möglich

Fernwärme klimaneutral transformieren

FERNWÄRME KLIMANEUTRAL TRANSFORMIEREN Fernwärme klimaneutral transformieren / Dunkelberg, Elisa (Rights reserved) ( -

Towards Resilient Energy Systems!

Ziel des Projekts RESYSTRA – Resiliente Gestaltung der Energiesysteme am Beispiel der Transformationsoptionen „EE-Methan-System“ und „Regionale Selbstversorgung“ war ein besseres Verständnis der Erfolgsfaktoren gerichteter Transformationen des Energiesystems herauszuarbeiten. Diese Faktoren wurden im Rahmen eines erweiterten Modells der Innovationssysteme im Bereich der Energieversorgung in Deutschland mit Bezug auf konkrete Akteure und deren Einflussmöglichkeiten dargestellt. http://www.resystra.de

Das Kopernikus-Projekt ENavi - Die Transformation des Stromsystems mit Fokus Kohleausstieg

In diesem Bericht wird die Transformation des Stromsystems als zentrale Stellschraube zur Erreichung der Klimaziele analysiert. Dabei wird die Dekarbonisierung, insbesondere der Ausstieg aus der Kohleverstromung, in den Fokus gerückt. Anhand einer systematischen Vorgehensweise werden Transformationsszenarien für das deutsche Energiesystem identifiziert, analysiert und bewertet. Die Analyse erfolgt mithilfe unterschiedlicher computergestützter Modelle, um die Auswirkungen im gesamten System abschätzen zu können. Es werden sowohl Wechselwirkungen im Stromsystem und im Energiesystem, als auch im Wirtschaftssystem und im Bereich Ressourcen und Umwelt untersucht

Vulnerability and resilience of cyber- physical power systems: Results from an empirical-based study

Power systems are undergoing a profound transformation towards cyber-physical systems. Disruptive changes due to energy system transition and the complexity of the interconnected systems expose the power system to new, unknown and unpredictable risks. To identify the critical points, a vulnerability assessment was conducted, involving experts from power as well as information and communication technologies (ICT) sectors. Weaknesses were identified e.g., the lack of policy enforcement worsened by the unreadiness of involved actors. The complex dynamics of ICT makes it infeasible to keep a complete inventory of potential stressors to define appropriate preparation and prevention mechanisms. Therefore, we suggest applying a resilience management approach to increase the resilience of the system. It aims at a better ride through failures rather than building higher walls. We conclude that building resilience in cyber-physical power systems is feasible and helps in preparing for the unexpected.22

The Resilience Concept: From its historical roots to theoretical framework for critical infrastructure design

The initial article chooses a historical approach to the theoretical discussion of resilience notions by reconstructing the emergence of its manifold layers of meaning. The first part focuses on metaphor and concept transfers, each of which has produced a disciplinary conceptual tradition and a culture of resilience. The second part then describes the genesis of the system-theoretical “resilience framework” of the biologist and ecosystem researcher C. S. Holling, which still shapes the resilience discourse to this day. The second article reconstructs the roots and the development steps of the concept of resilience in energy systems, starting in the alternative energy discourse in the early 1970ies and ending in the first elaborated theory of resilient energy system design by Amory Lovins in 1982. Risk management and resilience management share important features and they both aim at preparing systems for uncertain threats or stressors and their impacts. Still, the level of uncertainty regarding stressors and impacts, the type of systems addressed and the systems’ dynamics allow for a distinction between the applicability of either risk or resilience management. The third article provides a short introduction to the specifics of each strategy for coping with uncertainty and presents guidelines for designing a resilient critical infrastructure.21

Analyse und Bewertung der Resilienz urbaner Wärmeversorgungskonzepte – Methodenentwicklung und Anwendung

Die Energiewende weg von einem auf fossilen Brennstoffen basierenden und hin zu einem erneuerbaren, sektorgekoppelten Energiesystem bringt erhebliche strukturelle Anpassungen und Unsicherheiten mit sich. Resilienz, als Leitkonzept für entsprechende Transformationsprozesse, eröffnet Möglichkeiten der Vorbereitung auf unbekannte Stressoren und nichtlineares Verhalten komplexer Systeme. Folglich ist eine vergleichende Bewertung der Resilienz für die Ausgestaltung und Umsetzung resilienter Energiesysteme von zentraler Bedeutung. Zu diesem Zweck wurden ausgewählte resilienzsteigernde Strukturen und Funktionalitäten (Diversität, Redundanz, lose Kopplungen), die einen Vergleich des Resilienzgrades verschiedener Wärmeversorgungsszenarien ermöglichen, anhand von Bewertungsindikatoren erfasst und gegenübergestellt. Die Analyse der Wärmeversorgungsszenarien zeigt auf lokaler Ebene eine deutlich eingeschränkte Verfügbarkeit erneuerbarer Wärmequellen in Stadtbezirken. Daraus ist abzuleiten, dass zukünftig ein bedeutender Anteil des Wärmebedarfs durch eine strombasierte Versorgung aus überregional erzeugtem regenerativem Strom gedeckt werden muss. Die ausgeführte Bewertung zeigt, dass die Werte für die Indikatoren Diversität sowie lose Kopplung von Fernwärmesystemen durch Anstrengungen zur Defossilisierung abnehmen. Im Gegensatz dazu nimmt die Redundanz entsprechender Systeme zu, da eine höhere installierte Leistung erwartet wird, die auf eine Vielzahl kleiner dezentraler Einheiten verteilt ist.22

Optionen für die Integration von Power-to-Fuel in den Energiewendeprozess aus einer sozioökonomischen Perspektive

The debate on the German Energiewende is focused on the challenges of fluctuating electricity generation from photovoltaic and wind power. However, in order to achieve international climate protection goals, a transformation of all energy sectors is necessary. This requires alternative solutions. A direct electrification of heavy transport, aviation, shipping and the chemical industry appears to be an unlikely future scenario. Instead, synthetic fuels made of renewable electricity (power-to-fuel, P2F) could provide energy to these applications. Furthermore, the P2F concept may contribute to the integration of fluctuating renewable electricity generation. However, renewable synthetic fuels are not economically competitive against conventional fuels yet. In this article, their potential development in Germany is simulated for a horizon of 20 years with a newly developed agent-based model. Besides regulatory decisions and social impacts, representative investing and customer groups were implemented with particular characteristics, which allows identifying relevant options for an economic uptake of the P2F concept

Using agent-based models to generate transformation knowledge for the German Energiewende – potentials and challenges derived from four case studies

The German Energiewende is a deliberate transformation of an established industrial economy towards a nearly CO2-free energy system accompanied by a phase out of nuclear energy. Its governance requires knowledge on how to steer the transition from the existing status quo to the target situation (transformation knowledge). The energy system is, however, a complex socio-technical system whose dynamics are influenced by behavioural and institutional aspects, which are badly represented by the dominant techno-economic scenario studies. In this paper we therefore investigate and identify characteristics of model studies that make agent-based modelling supportive for the generation of transformation knowledge for the Energiewende. This is done by reflecting on the experiences gained from four different applications of agent-based models. In particular, we analyse whether the studies have improved our understanding of policies’ impacts on the energy system, whether the knowledge derived is useful for practitioners, how valid understanding derived by the studies is, and whether insights can be used beyond the initial case-studies. We conclude that agentbased modelling has high potential to generate transformation knowledge, but that the design of projects in which the models are developed and used is of major importance to reap this potential. Well-informed and goal-oriented stakeholder involvement and a strong collaboration between data collection and model development are crucial.21